💸 CPI – November

MacroDrip

Today’s CPI report should be taken with a grain of salt, as it’s unlikely to be a “clean” reading given limited data access during the shutdown.

The December report, due in early January, should carry more weight and provide the cleaner read that Powell has suggested the Fed needs.

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The inflation print for November just hit the tape, so let’s dive right in!

Here are the headline prints:

Year-over-Year:

✅ *US NOVEMBER CPI RISES 2.7% Y/Y; EST. +3.1%
✅ *US NOVEMBER CORE CPI RISES 2.6% Y/Y; EST. +3.0%

Month-over-Month:

⭕ N/A

For a complete breakdown of last month’s CPI,
download our US Inflation Dashboard.

November CPI — Year-over-Year

Let’s start with our chart that shows the weight of the three main CPI categories and their respective sub-groups on the left. On the right, you can see how each item contributes to the overall index.
(see September CPI)

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Next up, we’ve got two charts breaking down Core CPI — one showing year-over-year (YoY) changes and the other highlighting month-over-month (MoM) shifts, focusing on items with the most disproportionate impact.

November Core CPI — Year-over-Year

(see September Core CPI YoY)

November Core CPI — Month-over-Month

(see September Core CPI MoM)

⭕ N/A

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Overall, November’s CPI came in pretty soft. The downside is that there wasn’t any detailed month-over-month breakdown, since the October CPI report never came out.

Core CPI was up 2.63% year-over-year, with the usual big contributors still showing up — things like Motor Vehicle Repairs and Hospital Services.

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Most of the excess YoY inflation still stems from Shelter. And as we’ve discussed many times before, official Shelter data significantly lags behind real-time private market indicators.